Risks & Limitations

Polypar is a non-production, unaudited prototype. A parlay can lose the entire stake, and a winning status can still redeem below the displayed nominal amount. The concrete risks below apply in addition to ordinary betting risk.

Bettor and execution risks

• All-or-nothing loss: every selected leg must receive the complete selected CTF payout. An opposite result, split, tie, or void causes the whole parlay to lose.
• Price movement: the board is indicative. A fresh Gamma snapshot can produce a lower multiplier than the user accepted.
• Quote expiry or unavailability: the quote lasts 30 seconds. Missing source prices, signer downtime, database failure, or RPC failure can prevent placement.
• Deadline and capacity: a vault may close or fill before a transaction confirms. A quote does not reserve space.
• No Open-state exit: there is no cancellation, refund, withdrawal, push adjustment, resale, or cash-out while the vault is Open.
• Transaction risk: wallet rejection, insufficient USDC.e, insufficient gas, wrong network, RPC failure, reverts, and delayed indexing can interrupt the flow.

Outcome and resolution risks

• External dependency: settlement depends on Polymarket's Conditional Tokens conditions and their upstream resolution process.
• Timing: resolve() must be called; it is not an automatic contract action. Unresolved earlier legs can delay even a later proven loss.
• Tie and void treatment: any resolved payout less than the complete selected outcome is a loss, not a refunded or removed leg.
• Labels: app titles and outcome labels are trusted metadata. The contract evaluates numeric (conditionId, outcomeIndex) tuples.

Pricing and correlation risks

• Snapshot quality: Gamma outcome prices can be stale, thin, suspended, erroneous, or change between display and quote.
• Model assumption: multiplying outcome prices assumes the legs can be treated independently.
• Incomplete correlation enforcement: the current quote path rejects duplicate condition IDs but does not comprehensively identify same-event or otherwise correlated legs.
• Margin limits: primeBps and minSharePrice affect entry price; they do not ensure correct pricing, a positive house edge, or a positive bettor return.
• Integer rounding: fixed-point multiplication, share minting, redemption, and display formatting can create small differences.

Trust and administration risks

• Signer trust: the configured signer decides which probability payloads are authorized. Compromise or misconfiguration can produce incorrect quotes or make quoting unavailable.
• Creator and label trust: authorized creators choose vault legs, caps, deadlines, pricing parameters, and displayed metadata.
• Mutable future configuration: factory administrators can change the treasury, price signer, and collateral settings. Existing clones keep their leg tuples, but users must inspect the configuration relevant at interaction and resolution time.
• No audit claim: the factory, vault, intended treasury, application, and operational controls are reference implementations without a claimed independent security audit.

Asset and infrastructure risks

• USDC.e risk: bridged USDC.e can depeg, pause, blacklist, upgrade, or suffer bridge- and issuer-related failures.
• Polygon risk: congestion, reorganization, RPC inconsistency, gas volatility, or network failure can affect transactions.
• CTF risk: contract failure, unexpected payout data, or delayed condition resolution can affect settlement.
• External bridge risk: users moving assets from another chain rely on a separate bridge or exchange path that Polypar does not control.

Bankroll and LP risks

• Treasury shortfall: a winning vault requests a shortfall once, but receives no more than the intended treasury can supply. Redemption remains pro-rata over actual vault assets.
• No aggregate reservation: treasury withdrawals are not reserved against all unresolved winning exposure.
• Invalid target: the current configured treasury has no contract code, so expected top-ups are not operational.
• No later recovery path: after an underfunded win resolves, there is no automatic second funding request.
• LP loss: house-liquidity share value can decline, potentially severely, as wins are funded or pricing fails. Deposits are owner-whitelist gated in the intended design.

Verify the live facts in Network & Contracts. For the mechanics behind these risks, review Your Funds and Resolve & Redeem.